Historical texts often contain accounts of celestial events and natural disasters. I used to skip over these passages, dismissing them as side notes. But as I’ve gotten older and reread them, I’ve discovered they’re a crucial part of history. In particular, the ancients’ perspectives on these events, which I once considered pure, ignorant superstition, now seem increasingly worthy of reflection.
There is a passage in the story of the Han Dynasty that particularly moved me, so I specially copied it down. The following is an excerpt from “Zizhi Tongjian”. It tells a story from the time of Emperor Yuan of Han, which happened in 37 BC (the second year of Jianzhao).
Jing Fang of Dongjun studied the Book of Changes with Jiao Yanshou of Liang. Yanshou often said, “The one who perishes by learning my teachings is Jingsheng.” His theory specialized in calamities and anomalies, divided into sixty hexagrams and applied them to daily events. He used wind, rain, cold, and temperature as predictors, each with its own divination. Fang was particularly adept at applying his theory. He was appointed a civil official and repeatedly submitted memorials predicting calamities and anomalies, which proved to be accurate. The emperor was impressed and summoned him several times for questioning. Fang replied, “In ancient times, emperors promoted virtuous people based on their achievements, which led to the success of all things and the emergence of auspicious signs. In modern times, people are promoted based on their reputations, which has led to the decline of achievements and the occurrence of calamities and anomalies. It is advisable to test the performance of all officials, and then calamities and anomalies will cease.” The emperor ordered Fang to carry out the task, and Fang submitted a report on the examination of official duties and the implementation of the laws. The emperor ordered the ministers and court officials to hold a meeting with Fang. They all found Fang’s ideas tedious and disastrous, and the emperor, at all levels, rejected their proposals. The emperor was pleased. At the time, provincial governors reported to the capital, and the emperor summoned them to explain the situation to Fang. The governors again disagreed. Only Zheng Hong, the Imperial Censor, and Zhou Kan, the Imperial Rites, initially opposed the proposal. Later do good.
At that time, the Minister of the Central Secretariat, Shi Xian, was in power, and Xian’s friend, Wu Lu Chongzong, was the Minister of the Chancellery. The two of them were in power. Fang once met the emperor at a banquet and asked him, “Why were the rulers of You and Li in danger? Who did they appoint?” The emperor replied, “The rulers were not wise, and the people they appointed were cunning and flattering.” Fang said, “Knowing that they were cunning and flattering, and employing them, wouldn’t it be wise?” The emperor replied, “He was virtuous.” Fang said, “Then how do you know he is not virtuous?” The emperor replied, “Because the country was in chaos, and the ruler was in danger, you know.” Fang said, “If that’s the case, appointing virtuous people will lead to order, and appointing unworthy people will lead to chaos. This is the inevitable way. Why didn’t You and Li wake up and seek out virtuous people? What for?” How could he appoint such incompetent people to such a state?” The emperor said, “A ruler facing chaos should appoint his ministers virtuous. If they are all awakened, how can the world be saved from the ruler’s downfall?” Fang said, “Duke Huan of Qi and Emperor Qin II also heard of such rulers but did not laugh at them. However, he appointed Shu Diao and Zhao Gao, and the government became increasingly chaotic, with thieves everywhere. Why didn’t he consult You and Li for divination and wake himself up?” The emperor said, “Only those who understand the Tao can predict the future from the past.” Fang took off his hat and knelt down, saying, “The Spring and Autumn Annals records 242 years of disasters and anomalies as a warning to rulers of all ages. Since Your Majesty ascended the throne, the sun and moon have lost their sight, the stars have moved in reverse, mountains have collapsed, springs have gushed out, earthquakes have occurred, rocks have fallen, summer frosts have occurred, winter thunder has occurred, springs have withered, autumns have flourished, rocks have not been killed by frosts and meteorites, floods have occurred, crops have grown, and the people have suffered from famine and epidemics. Thieves are rampant, and the streets are full of prisoners. All the disasters and anomalies recorded in the Spring and Autumn Annals have occurred. Your Majesty, do you think this is a case of order or chaos?” The emperor said, “It is extremely chaotic. What is the point of this?” Fang said, “Who are the people you are appointing now?” The emperor said, “Yes, I am glad that he is better than the other one, but I also think that this person is not the one who is in power.” “Yes.” Fang said, “The rulers of previous dynasties were all like this. I am afraid that those who come after us will look upon us in the same way that we look upon the past!” The emperor paused for a long time before asking, “Who is causing the chaos now?” Fang said, “A wise ruler should know it himself.” The emperor said, “I don’t know. If I knew, why would I use him?” Fang said, “He is the one the emperor trusts most, the one who is in the tent and who promotes and demotes the people of the world.” Fang pointed to Shi Xian, and the emperor also knew about it and said to Fang, “I have given you instructions.” Fang was dismissed, and later the emperor was unable to dismiss Xian either.
Minister Guang said: If the ruler’s virtue is not clear, then even if the ministers want to be loyal, how can they do so? Looking at how Jing Fang understood Xiao Yuan, it can be said that he understood it thoroughly, but in the end he could not wake up. How sad! The Book of Songs says: “I did not tell him face to face, but raised his ear to my words. I did not hold him by the hand, but showed him things by my words.” And it also says: “I teach you earnestly, but you listen to me with a smile.” This is what Xiao Yuan meant!
Sima Guang’s primary reference for this story was likely the Biography of Jing Fang in the Book of Han. According to the records, Jing Fang was a highly learned forecaster who studied the I Ching with his teacher Jiao Yanshou and was adept at predicting disasters by interpreting hexagrams, with a high degree of accuracy. The account in the Book of Han is more specific:
During the reigns of Emperors Yongguang and Jianzhao, the Western Qiang rebelled, and a solar eclipse occurred. The sky was dark and foggy for a long time, and the sun was dim. Fang submitted several memorials, predicting the impending event, ranging from a few months to a year. His predictions often came true, and the emperor was pleased.
Although Emperor Yuan of Han was a very weak and incompetent person in personnel appointments, he was highly educated, had a deep understanding of Confucianism, and was highly accomplished in the arts, so it would not be difficult to deceive him in the study of the Book of Changes. Jing Fang must have been a man of real talent and learning.
However, what particularly struck me about this anecdote was Jing Fang’s political proposal for reforming the civil service system. He said, “In ancient times, emperors promoted virtuous officials based on their achievements, and thus all things came to fruition and auspicious signs appeared. In modern times, people are selected based on reputation, and thus, achievements are lost and disasters and anomalies occur. It is advisable to have all officials evaluated on their achievements, and then disasters and anomalies will cease.” In other words, officials should be selected based on their merits, not their reputations. Following the former approach will lead to success and auspicious signs appear; following the latter will lead to political corruption and natural disasters and anomalies. Therefore, he proposed a system for evaluating officials. Emperor Yuan of Han initially supported it, but the vast majority of his ministers opposed it. Only a few relatively honest and upright officials, initially opposed but then supported it. However, it seems that this evaluation system ultimately failed to be implemented because Shi Xian and others in power at the time were fed up with Jing Fang and were constantly trying to find ways to discipline him.
Jing Fang also used the Spring and Autumn Annals to persuade Emperor Yuan of Han, a very brilliant passage, which was especially touching when the other party was a master of Confucianism. He said: “The Spring and Autumn Annals records 242 years of disasters and anomalies as a warning to the rulers of all ages. Since Your Majesty ascended the throne, the sun and moon have gone blind, the stars have moved in reverse, mountains have collapsed, springs have gushed out, earthquakes have occurred, rocks have fallen, there have been summer frosts, winter thunder, springs have withered, autumns have flourished, meteorites and frosts have not killed, there have been floods, droughts, borers, the people have suffered from famine and epidemics, thieves have been banned, and the streets are full of prisoners. The Spring and Autumn Annals records all the disasters and anomalies. Do you think that this is a good time to govern or to cause chaos?”
From his perspective, the 242 years of disasters recorded in Confucius’ “Spring and Autumn Annals” served as a warning to future generations: in times of peace, auspicious signs appear; in times of chaos, natural disasters and extraordinary events occur. Here, Jing Fang did something incredibly bold: he catalogued the various disasters that had occurred since Emperor Yuan of Han ascended the throne (roughly 12 years). Wow, it was a long list! Every disaster recorded in the 242 years of the “Spring and Autumn Annals” actually occurred within the first 12 years of Emperor Yuan’s reign! Jing Fang then asked Emperor Yuan: “Your Majesty, what do you think? Are we in a peaceful or chaotic world now?”
What surprised me even more was that Emperor Yuan of Han actually said: “The situation has reached its peak, is there any need to say more?” — But this old man then softened his words: “This is not a question of my personnel selection. We are already doing very well in politics.”
So Jing Fang dealt the final blow to Emperor Yuan of Han: “The rulers of previous generations were all like this. I am afraid that those who come after us will look at the present as we look at the past!” — Those emperors in the past (referring to those emperors in troubled times) also thought so!
Emperor Yuan of Han knew very well that the people Jing Fang was referring to who caused the chaos were Shi Xian and his gang, who abused their power and monopolized the government at the time. However, this rather cowardly emperor seemed very attached to Shi Xian. He always felt that others could not truly understand the loyalty of this treacherous minister. In the end, he was reluctant to remove or kill Shi Xian, but allowed Shi Xian and others to eliminate dissidents one by one.
Naturally, not long after, Jing Fang was transferred from the capital. Just over a month after taking office in his new place, he was arrested and imprisoned. He was charged with “conspiracy to rebel” and “political slander” and was executed in public. His wife and children were exiled to the frontier.
Jing Fang was forty-one years old when he died.
That year, Emperor Yuan of Han was 37 years old. He also died four years later at the age of 41.
Emperor Yuan of Han holds a significant place in the history of the Han dynasty, primarily because he marked the turning point in the Han dynasty’s decline. This emperor was a man of profound culture and virtue, particularly known for his frugality and generosity. In ordinary conversation, he would have been a refined and modest gentleman. However, he managed the country in a horrific manner, and his reign was a truly devastating experience. It’s truly unspeakable.
We were taught that natural disasters are the product of nature, unrelated to human activity (especially politics). But I’m increasingly skeptical of such assertions. While this view is inherently materialistic, dialectically, all things are universally connected. Even the flapping of a butterfly’s wings on the other side of the ocean can trigger a tsunami here. Are natural disasters truly unrelated to human activity? If so, how much of a connection do they have?
Or, let’s temporarily suspend the debate about whether it does or doesn’t work, and just ask: If we believe that it does, is it possible that the world will really become a better place?
At least, in my opinion, when we openly believe that “there is no connection at all”, it really feels like things are going from bad to worse, and I don’t know how far we will go…
A random note on the night of April 17, 2010 in Argentina