\nHis\u00adtor\u00adi\u00adcal texts often con\u00adtain accounts of celes\u00adtial events and nat\u00adur\u00adal dis\u00adas\u00adters. I used to skip over these pas\u00adsages, dis\u00admiss\u00ading them as side notes. But as I\u2019ve got\u00adten old\u00ader and reread them, I\u2019ve dis\u00adcov\u00adered they\u2019re a cru\u00adcial part of his\u00adto\u00adry. In par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar, the ancients\u2019 per\u00adspec\u00adtives on these events, which I once con\u00adsid\u00adered pure, igno\u00adrant super\u00adsti\u00adtion, now seem increas\u00ading\u00adly wor\u00adthy of reflec\u00adtion.
\n
\nThere is a pas\u00adsage in the sto\u00adry of the Han Dynasty that par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly moved me, so I spe\u00adcial\u00adly copied it down. The fol\u00adlow\u00ading is an excerpt from \u201cZizhi Tongjian\u201d. It tells a sto\u00adry from the time of Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han, which hap\u00adpened in 37 BC (the sec\u00adond year of Jianzhao).
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\n
\nJing Fang of Dongjun stud\u00adied the Book of Changes with Jiao Yan\u00adshou of Liang. Yan\u00adshou often said, \u201cThe one who per\u00adish\u00ades by learn\u00ading my teach\u00adings is Jing\u00adsheng.\u201d His the\u00ado\u00adry spe\u00adcial\u00adized in calami\u00adties and anom\u00adalies, divid\u00aded into six\u00adty hexa\u00adgrams and applied them to dai\u00adly events. He used wind, rain, cold, and tem\u00adper\u00ada\u00adture as pre\u00addic\u00adtors, each with its own div\u00adina\u00adtion. Fang was par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly adept at apply\u00ading his the\u00ado\u00adry. He was appoint\u00aded a civ\u00adil offi\u00adcial and repeat\u00aded\u00adly sub\u00admit\u00adted memo\u00adri\u00adals pre\u00addict\u00ading calami\u00adties and anom\u00adalies, which proved to be accu\u00adrate. The emper\u00ador was impressed and sum\u00admoned him sev\u00ader\u00adal times for ques\u00adtion\u00ading. Fang replied, \u201cIn ancient times, emper\u00adors pro\u00admot\u00aded vir\u00adtu\u00adous peo\u00adple based on their achieve\u00adments, which led to the suc\u00adcess of all things and the emer\u00adgence of aus\u00adpi\u00adcious signs. In mod\u00adern times, peo\u00adple are pro\u00admot\u00aded based on their rep\u00adu\u00adta\u00adtions, which has led to the decline of achieve\u00adments and the occur\u00adrence of calami\u00adties and anom\u00adalies. It is advis\u00adable to test the per\u00adfor\u00admance of all offi\u00adcials, and then calami\u00adties and anom\u00adalies will cease.\u201d The emper\u00ador ordered Fang to car\u00adry out the task, and Fang sub\u00admit\u00adted a report on the exam\u00adi\u00adna\u00adtion of offi\u00adcial duties and the imple\u00admen\u00adta\u00adtion of the laws. The emper\u00ador ordered the min\u00adis\u00adters and court offi\u00adcials to hold a meet\u00ading with Fang. They all found Fang\u2019s ideas tedious and dis\u00adas\u00adtrous, and the emper\u00ador, at all lev\u00adels, reject\u00aded their pro\u00adpos\u00adals. The emper\u00ador was pleased. At the time, provin\u00adcial gov\u00ader\u00adnors report\u00aded to the cap\u00adi\u00adtal, and the emper\u00ador sum\u00admoned them to explain the sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion to Fang. The gov\u00ader\u00adnors again dis\u00adagreed. Only Zheng Hong, the Impe\u00adr\u00adi\u00adal Cen\u00adsor, and Zhou Kan, the Impe\u00adr\u00adi\u00adal Rites, ini\u00adtial\u00adly opposed the pro\u00adpos\u00adal. Lat\u00ader do good.<\/p>\n
\nAt that time, the Min\u00adis\u00adter of the Cen\u00adtral Sec\u00adre\u00adtari\u00adat, Shi Xian, was in pow\u00ader, and Xian\u2019s friend, Wu Lu Chong\u00adzong, was the Min\u00adis\u00adter of the Chan\u00adcellery. The two of them were in pow\u00ader. Fang once met the emper\u00ador at a ban\u00adquet and asked him, \u201cWhy were the rulers of You and Li in dan\u00adger? Who did they appoint?\u201d The emper\u00ador replied, \u201cThe rulers were not wise, and the peo\u00adple they appoint\u00aded were cun\u00adning and flat\u00adter\u00ading.\u201d Fang said, \u201cKnow\u00ading that they were cun\u00adning and flat\u00adter\u00ading, and employ\u00ading them, would\u00adn\u2019t it be wise?\u201d The emper\u00ador replied, \u201cHe was vir\u00adtu\u00adous.\u201d Fang said, \u201cThen how do you know he is not vir\u00adtu\u00adous?\u201d The emper\u00ador replied, \u201cBecause the coun\u00adtry was in chaos, and the ruler was in dan\u00adger, you know.\u201d Fang said, \u201cIf that\u2019s the case, appoint\u00ading vir\u00adtu\u00adous peo\u00adple will lead to order, and appoint\u00ading unwor\u00adthy peo\u00adple will lead to chaos. This is the inevitable way. Why did\u00adn\u2019t You and Li wake up and seek out vir\u00adtu\u00adous peo\u00adple? What for?\u201d How could he appoint such incom\u00adpe\u00adtent peo\u00adple to such a state?\u201d The emper\u00ador said, \u201cA ruler fac\u00ading chaos should appoint his min\u00adis\u00adters vir\u00adtu\u00adous. If they are all awak\u00adened, how can the world be saved from the ruler\u2019s down\u00adfall?\u201d Fang said, \u201cDuke Huan of Qi and Emper\u00ador Qin II also heard of such rulers but did not laugh at them. How\u00adev\u00ader, he appoint\u00aded Shu Diao and Zhao Gao, and the gov\u00adern\u00adment became increas\u00ading\u00adly chaot\u00adic, with thieves every\u00adwhere. Why did\u00adn\u2019t he con\u00adsult You and Li for div\u00adina\u00adtion and wake him\u00adself up?\u201d The emper\u00ador said, \u201cOnly those who under\u00adstand the Tao can pre\u00addict the future from the past.\u201d Fang took off his hat and knelt down, say\u00ading, \u201cThe Spring and Autumn Annals records 242 years of dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies as a warn\u00ading to rulers of all ages. Since Your Majesty ascend\u00aded the throne, the sun and moon have lost their sight, the stars have moved in reverse, moun\u00adtains have col\u00adlapsed, springs have gushed out, earth\u00adquakes have occurred, rocks have fall\u00aden, sum\u00admer frosts have occurred, win\u00adter thun\u00adder has occurred, springs have with\u00adered, autumns have flour\u00adished, rocks have not been killed by frosts and mete\u00adorites, floods have occurred, crops have grown, and the peo\u00adple have suf\u00adfered from famine and epi\u00addemics. Thieves are ram\u00adpant, and the streets are full of pris\u00adon\u00aders. All the dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies record\u00aded in the Spring and Autumn Annals have occurred. Your Majesty, do you think this is a case of order or chaos?\u201d The emper\u00ador said, \u201cIt is extreme\u00adly chaot\u00adic. What is the point of this?\u201d Fang said, \u201cWho are the peo\u00adple you are appoint\u00ading now?\u201d The emper\u00ador said, \u201cYes, I am glad that he is bet\u00adter than the oth\u00ader one, but I also think that this per\u00adson is not the one who is in pow\u00ader.\u201d \u201cYes.\u201d Fang said, \u201cThe rulers of pre\u00advi\u00adous dynas\u00adties were all like this. I am afraid that those who come after us will look upon us in the same way that we look upon the past!\u201d The emper\u00ador paused for a long time before ask\u00ading, \u201cWho is caus\u00ading the chaos now?\u201d Fang said, \u201cA wise ruler should know it him\u00adself.\u201d The emper\u00ador said, \u201cI don\u2019t know. If I knew, why would I use him?\u201d Fang said, \u201cHe is the one the emper\u00ador trusts most, the one who is in the tent and who pro\u00admotes and demotes the peo\u00adple of the world.\u201d Fang point\u00aded to Shi Xian, and the emper\u00ador also knew about it and said to Fang, \u201cI have giv\u00aden you instruc\u00adtions.\u201d Fang was dis\u00admissed, and lat\u00ader the emper\u00ador was unable to dis\u00admiss Xian either.<\/p>\n
\nMin\u00adis\u00adter Guang said: If the ruler\u2019s virtue is not clear, then even if the min\u00adis\u00adters want to be loy\u00adal, how can they do so? Look\u00ading at how Jing Fang under\u00adstood Xiao Yuan, it can be said that he under\u00adstood it thor\u00adough\u00adly, but in the end he could not wake up. How sad! The Book of Songs says: \u201cI did not tell him face to face, but raised his ear to my words. I did not hold him by the hand, but showed him things by my words.\u201d And it also says: \u201cI teach you earnest\u00adly, but you lis\u00adten to me with a smile.\u201d This is what Xiao Yuan meant!
\n
\n
\nSima Guang\u2019s pri\u00adma\u00adry ref\u00ader\u00adence for this sto\u00adry was like\u00adly the Biog\u00adra\u00adphy of Jing Fang in the Book of Han. Accord\u00ading to the records, Jing Fang was a high\u00adly learned fore\u00adcast\u00ader who stud\u00adied the I Ching with his teacher Jiao Yan\u00adshou and was adept at pre\u00addict\u00ading dis\u00adas\u00adters by inter\u00adpret\u00ading hexa\u00adgrams, with a high degree of accu\u00adra\u00adcy. The account in the Book of Han is more spe\u00adcif\u00adic:
\n
\n
\nDur\u00ading the reigns of Emper\u00adors Yong\u00adguang and Jianzhao, the West\u00adern Qiang rebelled, and a solar eclipse occurred. The sky was dark and fog\u00adgy for a long time, and the sun was dim. Fang sub\u00admit\u00adted sev\u00ader\u00adal memo\u00adri\u00adals, pre\u00addict\u00ading the impend\u00ading event, rang\u00ading from a few months to a year. His pre\u00addic\u00adtions often came true, and the emper\u00ador was pleased.
\n
\n
\nAlthough Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han was a very weak and incom\u00adpe\u00adtent per\u00adson in per\u00adson\u00adnel appoint\u00adments, he was high\u00adly edu\u00adcat\u00aded, had a deep under\u00adstand\u00ading of Con\u00adfu\u00adcian\u00adism, and was high\u00adly accom\u00adplished in the arts, so it would not be dif\u00adfi\u00adcult to deceive him in the study of the Book of Changes. Jing Fang must have been a man of real tal\u00adent and learn\u00ading.
\n
\nHow\u00adev\u00ader, what par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly struck me about this anec\u00addote was Jing Fang\u2019s polit\u00adi\u00adcal pro\u00adpos\u00adal for reform\u00ading the civ\u00adil ser\u00advice sys\u00adtem. He said, \u201cIn ancient times, emper\u00adors pro\u00admot\u00aded vir\u00adtu\u00adous offi\u00adcials based on their achieve\u00adments, and thus all things came to fruition and aus\u00adpi\u00adcious signs appeared. In mod\u00adern times, peo\u00adple are select\u00aded based on rep\u00adu\u00adta\u00adtion, and thus, achieve\u00adments are lost and dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies occur. It is advis\u00adable to have all offi\u00adcials eval\u00adu\u00adat\u00aded on their achieve\u00adments, and then dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies will cease.\u201d In oth\u00ader words, offi\u00adcials should be select\u00aded based on their mer\u00adits, not their rep\u00adu\u00adta\u00adtions. Fol\u00adlow\u00ading the for\u00admer approach will lead to suc\u00adcess and aus\u00adpi\u00adcious signs appear; fol\u00adlow\u00ading the lat\u00adter will lead to polit\u00adi\u00adcal cor\u00adrup\u00adtion and nat\u00adur\u00adal dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies. There\u00adfore, he pro\u00adposed a sys\u00adtem for eval\u00adu\u00adat\u00ading offi\u00adcials. Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han ini\u00adtial\u00adly sup\u00adport\u00aded it, but the vast major\u00adi\u00adty of his min\u00adis\u00adters opposed it. Only a few rel\u00ada\u00adtive\u00adly hon\u00adest and upright offi\u00adcials, ini\u00adtial\u00adly opposed but then sup\u00adport\u00aded it. How\u00adev\u00ader, it seems that this eval\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion sys\u00adtem ulti\u00admate\u00adly failed to be imple\u00adment\u00aded because Shi Xian and oth\u00aders in pow\u00ader at the time were fed up with Jing Fang and were con\u00adstant\u00adly try\u00ading to find ways to dis\u00adci\u00adpline him.
\n
\nJing Fang also used the Spring and Autumn Annals to per\u00adsuade Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han, a very bril\u00adliant pas\u00adsage, which was espe\u00adcial\u00adly touch\u00ading when the oth\u00ader par\u00adty was a mas\u00adter of Con\u00adfu\u00adcian\u00adism. He said: \u201cThe Spring and Autumn Annals records 242 years of dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies as a warn\u00ading to the rulers of all ages. Since Your Majesty ascend\u00aded the throne, the sun and moon have gone blind, the stars have moved in reverse, moun\u00adtains have col\u00adlapsed, springs have gushed out, earth\u00adquakes have occurred, rocks have fall\u00aden, there have been sum\u00admer frosts, win\u00adter thun\u00adder, springs have with\u00adered, autumns have flour\u00adished, mete\u00adorites and frosts have not killed, there have been floods, droughts, bor\u00aders, the peo\u00adple have suf\u00adfered from famine and epi\u00addemics, thieves have been banned, and the streets are full of pris\u00adon\u00aders. The Spring and Autumn Annals records all the dis\u00adas\u00adters and anom\u00adalies. Do you think that this is a good time to gov\u00adern or to cause chaos?\u201d
\n
\nFrom his per\u00adspec\u00adtive, the 242 years of dis\u00adas\u00adters record\u00aded in Con\u00adfu\u00adcius\u2019 \u201cSpring and Autumn Annals\u201d served as a warn\u00ading to future gen\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtions: in times of peace, aus\u00adpi\u00adcious signs appear; in times of chaos, nat\u00adur\u00adal dis\u00adas\u00adters and extra\u00ador\u00addi\u00adnary events occur. Here, Jing Fang did some\u00adthing incred\u00adi\u00adbly bold: he cat\u00ada\u00adlogued the var\u00adi\u00adous dis\u00adas\u00adters that had occurred since Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han ascend\u00aded the throne (rough\u00adly 12 years). Wow, it was a long list! Every dis\u00adas\u00adter record\u00aded in the 242 years of the \u201cSpring and Autumn Annals\u201d actu\u00adal\u00adly occurred with\u00adin the first 12 years of Emper\u00ador Yuan\u2019s reign! Jing Fang then asked Emper\u00ador Yuan: \u201cYour Majesty, what do you think? Are we in a peace\u00adful or chaot\u00adic world now?\u201d
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\nWhat sur\u00adprised me even more was that Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han actu\u00adal\u00adly said: \u201cThe sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion has reached its peak, is there any need to say more?\u201d \u2014 But this old man then soft\u00adened his words: \u201cThis is not a ques\u00adtion of my per\u00adson\u00adnel selec\u00adtion. We are already doing very well in pol\u00adi\u00adtics.\u201d
\n
\nSo Jing Fang dealt the final blow to Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han: \u201cThe rulers of pre\u00advi\u00adous gen\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtions were all like this. I am afraid that those who come after us will look at the present as we look at the past!\u201d \u2014 Those emper\u00adors in the past (refer\u00adring to those emper\u00adors in trou\u00adbled times) also thought so!
\n
\nEmper\u00ador Yuan of Han knew very well that the peo\u00adple Jing Fang was refer\u00adring to who caused the chaos were Shi Xian and his gang, who abused their pow\u00ader and monop\u00ado\u00adlized the gov\u00adern\u00adment at the time. How\u00adev\u00ader, this rather cow\u00adard\u00adly emper\u00ador seemed very attached to Shi Xian. He always felt that oth\u00aders could not tru\u00adly under\u00adstand the loy\u00adal\u00adty of this treach\u00ader\u00adous min\u00adis\u00adter. In the end, he was reluc\u00adtant to remove or kill Shi Xian, but allowed Shi Xian and oth\u00aders to elim\u00adi\u00adnate dis\u00adsi\u00addents one by one.
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\nNat\u00adu\u00adral\u00adly, not long after, Jing Fang was trans\u00adferred from the cap\u00adi\u00adtal. Just over a month after tak\u00ading office in his new place, he was arrest\u00aded and impris\u00adoned. He was charged with \u201ccon\u00adspir\u00ada\u00adcy to rebel\u201d and \u201cpolit\u00adi\u00adcal slan\u00adder\u201d and was exe\u00adcut\u00aded in pub\u00adlic. His wife and chil\u00addren were exiled to the fron\u00adtier.
\n
\nJing Fang was forty-one years old when he died.
\n
\nThat year, Emper\u00ador Yuan of Han was 37 years old. He also died four years lat\u00ader at the age of 41.
\n
\nEmper\u00ador Yuan of Han holds a sig\u00adnif\u00adi\u00adcant place in the his\u00adto\u00adry of the Han dynasty, pri\u00admar\u00adi\u00adly because he marked the turn\u00ading point in the Han dynasty\u2019s decline. This emper\u00ador was a man of pro\u00adfound cul\u00adture and virtue, par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly known for his fru\u00adgal\u00adi\u00adty and gen\u00aderos\u00adi\u00adty. In ordi\u00adnary con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtion, he would have been a refined and mod\u00adest gen\u00adtle\u00adman. How\u00adev\u00ader, he man\u00adaged the coun\u00adtry in a hor\u00adrif\u00adic man\u00adner, and his reign was a tru\u00adly dev\u00adas\u00adtat\u00ading expe\u00adri\u00adence. It\u2019s tru\u00adly unspeak\u00adable.
\n
\nWe were taught that nat\u00adur\u00adal dis\u00adas\u00adters are the prod\u00aduct of nature, unre\u00adlat\u00aded to human activ\u00adi\u00adty (espe\u00adcial\u00adly pol\u00adi\u00adtics). But I\u2019m increas\u00ading\u00adly skep\u00adti\u00adcal of such asser\u00adtions. While this view is inher\u00adent\u00adly mate\u00adri\u00adal\u00adis\u00adtic, dialec\u00adti\u00adcal\u00adly, all things are uni\u00adver\u00adsal\u00adly con\u00adnect\u00aded. Even the flap\u00adping of a but\u00adter\u00adfly\u00ad\u2019s wings on the oth\u00ader side of the ocean can trig\u00adger a tsuna\u00admi here. Are nat\u00adur\u00adal dis\u00adas\u00adters tru\u00adly unre\u00adlat\u00aded to human activ\u00adi\u00adty? If so, how much of a con\u00adnec\u00adtion do they have?
\n
\nOr, let\u2019s tem\u00adporar\u00adi\u00adly sus\u00adpend the debate about whether it does or does\u00adn\u2019t work, and just ask: If we believe that it does, is it pos\u00adsi\u00adble that the world will real\u00adly become a bet\u00adter place?
\n
\nAt least, in my opin\u00adion, when we open\u00adly believe that \u201cthere is no con\u00adnec\u00adtion at all\u201d, it real\u00adly feels like things are going from bad to worse, and I don\u2019t know how far we will go\u2026
\n
\nA ran\u00addom note on the night of April 17, 2010 in Argenti\u00adna<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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